Our Cheney crunches the numbers

Finances

How much revenue would Atlanta Public Schools receive?

Read the signed LOI View the July 6 presentation
Annualized fixed rent in 2026 dollars $67,964 Our best estimate
Annual rent gap ~$950,000 Estimated gap between the deal and market value

How the calculation works

The numbers

The letter of intent provides annual rent payments with different amounts in different years. As inflation occurs, the value of each payment decreases. Our Cheney took the numbers from the LOI, used a 2% annual inflation rate to calculate each year’s payment in constant dollars, and then divided the total by 50 to yield the annual average.

View the complete 50-year rent table

Dollar amounts in the constant-dollar columns are expressed in 2026 dollars. Totals use unrounded values, so they may differ slightly from the sum of the displayed rows. The table can be scrolled horizontally on smaller screens.

Complete 50-year proposed rent schedule, including scheduled and maximum loss-year rent in nominal and 2026 dollars.
Year Scheduled rent Scheduled rent in 2026 dollars Maximum loss-year rent Maximum loss-year rent in 2026 dollars
1$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
2$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
3$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
4$50,000.00$47,116.12$25,000.00$23,558.06
5$50,000.00$46,192.27$25,000.00$23,096.14
6$100,000.00$90,573.08$50,000.00$45,286.54
7$100,000.00$88,797.14$50,000.00$44,398.57
8$100,000.00$87,056.02$50,000.00$43,528.01
9$100,000.00$85,349.04$50,000.00$42,674.52
10$100,000.00$83,675.53$50,000.00$41,837.76
11$110,000.00$90,238.31$82,500.00$67,678.73
12$110,000.00$88,468.93$82,500.00$66,351.70
13$110,000.00$86,734.25$82,500.00$65,050.69
14$110,000.00$85,033.58$82,500.00$63,775.18
15$110,000.00$83,366.25$82,500.00$62,524.69
16$115,000.00$85,446.69$86,250.00$64,085.02
17$115,000.00$83,771.27$86,250.00$62,828.45
18$115,000.00$82,128.69$86,250.00$61,596.52
19$115,000.00$80,518.33$86,250.00$60,388.75
20$115,000.00$78,939.54$86,250.00$59,204.65
21$120,000.00$80,756.56$90,000.00$60,567.42
22$120,000.00$79,173.10$90,000.00$59,379.82
23$120,000.00$77,620.68$90,000.00$58,215.51
24$120,000.00$76,098.71$90,000.00$57,074.03
25$120,000.00$74,606.58$90,000.00$55,954.93
26$125,000.00$76,191.36$93,750.00$57,143.52
27$125,000.00$74,697.41$93,750.00$56,023.06
28$125,000.00$73,232.76$93,750.00$54,924.57
29$125,000.00$71,796.82$93,750.00$53,847.61
30$125,000.00$70,389.04$93,750.00$52,791.78
31$130,000.00$71,769.22$97,500.00$53,826.91
32$130,000.00$70,361.98$97,500.00$52,771.48
33$130,000.00$68,982.33$97,500.00$51,736.75
34$130,000.00$67,629.73$97,500.00$50,722.30
35$130,000.00$66,303.66$97,500.00$49,727.75
36$135,000.00$67,503.73$101,250.00$50,627.80
37$135,000.00$66,180.13$101,250.00$49,635.09
38$135,000.00$64,882.48$101,250.00$48,661.86
39$135,000.00$63,610.27$101,250.00$47,707.70
40$135,000.00$62,363.01$101,250.00$46,772.26
41$140,000.00$63,404.66$105,000.00$47,553.49
42$140,000.00$62,161.43$105,000.00$46,621.07
43$140,000.00$60,942.58$105,000.00$45,706.93
44$140,000.00$59,747.63$105,000.00$44,810.72
45$140,000.00$58,576.10$105,000.00$43,932.08
46$150,000.00$61,529.52$112,500.00$46,147.14
47$150,000.00$60,323.06$112,500.00$45,242.29
48$150,000.00$59,140.25$112,500.00$44,355.19
49$150,000.00$57,980.64$112,500.00$43,485.48
50$150,000.00$56,843.77$112,500.00$42,632.82
Average$114,500.00$67,964.08$82,875.00$48,329.27
Total$5,725,000.00$3,398,204.21$4,143,750.00$2,416,463.36

Loss-year clause

Rent reductions

The letter of intent would reduce the fixed rent whenever Atlanta Track Club is not net revenue positive on a consolidated basis:

(iii) Loss-year fixed rent reduction: In any lease year in which ATC is not net revenue positive on a consolidated entity basis for the prior fiscal year, the scheduled ground rent for such lease year shall be reduced by fifty percent (50%) during the first ten (10) years of the Lease and by twenty-five percent (25%) thereafter.

If the maximum reduction applied throughout the entire lease, the annualized value of the fixed rent would fall to $48,329.27 per year in 2026 dollars.

In recent years, Atlanta Track Club has reported annual surpluses more often than deficits. Given the additional revenue from the facility, ATC will likely be cash-flow positive in most years. A loss may occur during construction, startup, or unusually difficult operating periods. Consistent losses are unlikely, and the full rent amount will likely be paid in most years.

The unreduced fixed schedule is therefore the better baseline. The $48,329.27 figure shows the additional downside permitted by the proposed terms.

Uncertain upside

Profit sharing

The proposal also offers APS a share of Atlanta Track Club’s net revenue in profitable years:

(ii) Net revenue premium in profitable years: In any lease year in which ATC is net revenue positive on a consolidated entity basis for the prior fiscal year, ATC shall pay APS, in addition to the scheduled ground rent for such lease year, an amount equal to ten percent (10%) of such net revenue. For purposes of this calculation, “net revenue” shall exclude all philanthropic and capital campaign contributions but shall include operating sponsorships. No cap shall apply to the premium.

Atlanta Track Club’s 2024 figures

Atlanta Track Club 2024 Form 990 figures.
2024 Form 990 figureAmount
Total revenue$14,211,029
Contributions$6,177,867
Contributions as a share of revenue43.5%
Total expenses$13,380,133
Reported surplus$830,896

The simple calculation subtracts the reported surplus from contributions, yielding a gap of about $5.3 million. That is the change—in either reduced donations or increased net revenue—needed for this clause to activate. It is difficult to conceive of a situation where this would occur. Using ATC’s latest numbers, it would have required either an 85% drop in contributions or an annual profit of more than $5.3 million. Neither seems likely.

Separate the questions

Tax benefits are not rent

Atlanta Track Club’s community presentation also credits the project with regional sales-tax revenue and broader economic activity. Those projections may help answer whether a major indoor track facility would benefit the Atlanta region. They do not establish whether APS is being fairly compensated for this particular property.

The relevant comparison is not simply facility versus no facility. It is also public-school land versus privately purchased or leased land. Much of the projected spending could occur if ATC built the same facility elsewhere in the region. Tax revenue generated by the facility should therefore be evaluated separately from the value APS receives for its land.